October 10th, 2023 Meeting Abstract
“Risking Subsurface CO2 Storage Projects”
Presented by: Creties Jenkins
A workshop on Subsurface Technical Issues Impacting Carbon Sequestration was held at CSUB in April, 2023. This presentation begins with a summary of that workshop including the identification of key issues and mitigating actions needed to move projects forward. We’ll then focus on the differences between risking petroleum production and CO2 injection projects. These include quantifying a range of potential low-frequency high-impact events over many decades and identifying periods of peak risk. Techniques such as a risk register, bow-tie analysis, and influence diagrams are useful for understanding the relationship between various drivers. A staged approach that addresses current risks today and future risks in succeeding years is critical for responsibly exposing capital. A probabilistic approach that uses input ranges and Monte Carlo simulation is important for quantifying the range of project outcomes. These tools, combined with framing sessions, project assurance, and post-appraisal reviews, will be critical for assessing our performance, learning from our mistakes, and delivering on our
promises to sequester CO2 commercially and responsibly.
Creties Jenkins is a Geological Engineer with Rose and Associates, and has over 35 years of worldwide experience in petroleum exploration, appraisal and development. His expertise includes integrated studies, resource estimation, technical assurance and risk analysis. Creties has helped dozens of companies become more objective in their evaluations and expectations, and is working to bring the same rigor to new energy ventures like CCUS.